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Why do semantically identical prompts produce different LLM outputs?

Explores why paraphrases with the same meaning yield different model outputs. This matters because it reveals what LLMs actually respond to during inference—and whether prompt engineering is optimizing meaning or something else.

Synthesis note · 2026-05-02 · sourced from Natural Language Inference

Cao et al. (2024) showed prompts with the same meaning give very different output quality. Adam's Law isolates frequency as a primary variable in that variance: when paraphrase pairs are matched on meaning but differ on sentence-level corpus frequency, the higher-frequency variant systematically wins. This converts a known phenomenon — prompt sensitivity — from a vague reliability concern into a specific architectural claim about what the model is actually responding to.

The implication for Does model confidence predict robustness to prompt changes? is direct but complicating. Confidence-based accounts read prompt sensitivity as model uncertainty fluctuating across surface variations. Adam's Law inserts a deeper variable: even at fixed model confidence, frequency mass differs across paraphrases because pre-training exposure differs, and that exposure asymmetry shapes the prediction independent of how confident the model "feels." Confidence and frequency are entangled, but frequency is the more upstream cause.

For a Language-as-Event frame, this is load-bearing. A prompt is not a transparent vessel that hands meaning to the model. It is a token sequence whose statistical mass relative to pre-training shapes how the model parses the request before any semantic interpretation occurs. Two synonymous sentences are not the same event. They are two different statistical encounters that happen to share a meaning a human would assign them. The model registers the encounter; meaning is what we read into the registration. This connects to Can models pass tests while missing the actual grammar? — when surface and meaning compete, surface wins by construction.

A practical corollary: prompt-engineering as a discipline is partly a folk practice of frequency optimization. "Phrase it like a textbook" or "rewrite the prompt the way StackOverflow would phrase it" are intuitive moves toward higher-frequency surface forms. Adam's Law gives that folk practice a name and a mechanism — and a warning, because frequency-tuning a prompt does not improve the model's reasoning; it just moves the request into the model's denser distributional region.

Inquiring lines that read this note 42

This note is a source for these research framings, grouped by the broader line of inquiry each explores. Scan the bold lines of inquiry; follow any specific question forward.

What explains the gap between LLM semantic understanding and production? What can prompting techniques actually accomplish in language models? How do prompt design choices and framing measurably influence model outputs? Can persona prompting reliably change how language models behave? What reasoning limitations and biases do language models systematically exhibit? Can scaling alone produce compositional generalization in neural networks? Do language models truly understand their encoded knowledge or merely retrieve patterns? What distinguishes genuine understanding from correct linguistic performance? Why do multiple language models independently generate similar outputs? Can prompts override training-embedded biases in language models? Does prompting inject new knowledge into models or activate existing knowledge? What makes reasoning models struggle with ill-posed and unfamiliar problems? Why doesn't LLM knowledge translate to improved reasoning outputs? How do prompt injection attacks compromise agent reasoning and security? Is model misalignment inherent to base models or induced by alignment procedures? How should context management strategies balance efficiency with agent reliability? How do benchmark scores relate to real-world task completion? When does routing outperform scaling as a performance solution? Can harness optimization rival model scaling in effectiveness?

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Original note title

paraphrase equivalence is a fiction — same-meaning prompts produce different LLM outputs because frequency, not semantics, drives the prediction