AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter

Source: Anthropic Frontier Red Team (William Zhou, Daniel Freeman) · 2026-10-12

Our experiments suggest that small AI models may be months away from being capable enough to self-replicate on commercial internet-of-things (IoT) devices, like smart ovens and off-brand Android TV boxes. A replicator like this would be challenging to shut down, since there’s no centralized point to shut off—though it may be slow (with a doubling time of days). Unlike non-AI malware, it could also figure out unfamiliar devices on its own. In our evaluations, a 9B model got inference running on 8 of the 9 hardware types we tested.

Models of 30B parameters and under can already complete many of the individual steps for replication today, though they make mistakes when composing them end to end. In our simplified evaluations, GLM-5.2 and stronger models are capable of end to end replication. If small models improve at their historical rate, they’ll match this capability level by the end of this year. Small weight-based replicators may be possible soon after.

Ever-improving AI capabilities make a longstanding concern increasingly realistic: autonomous replication and adaptation (ARA), which involves a model deploying and propagating itself without human control.

In cyber, a worm is a program that copies itself from one computer to the next without human input. Prior work has already shown that AI agents can act like one: scanning their network, executing an exploit, and copying model weights to a target machine across a GPU cluster. Such an “AI worm” could carry its model weights with it as it reproduces (or re-download them from a public hub), and then run inference directly on compromised hardware. Effectively, the weights would become part of the malware payload.

Datacenter GPUs would be a clear, high-value target for such malware. But expensive accelerators aren’t strictly necessary. In this blog post, we show that a distributed botnet of IoT devices—which are cheap and typically poorly defended—could also provide enough compute to run a capable model.

We run Gemma4-26B-A4B, distributed over 15 inexpensive off-brand Android TV boxes (~$55 each) that we bought and networked together, at 0.39 tokens per second. Each tile below shows one physical TV box holding two of the model’s layers as the model runs.

Of course, there are many other steps to showing that an autonomous worm can propagate itself across a network of weak machines. For the purposes of this blog post, we break down the replication chain into a few steps.

A small model, replicating via host compromise. In this post, we’ll call autonomous worms that run their models directly on compromised hardware weight-based replicators. Home and small business IoT devices might be the first target for such attacks because they’re connected to the internet and, historically, have had minimal security measures in place.A model that’s too large to fit on one device can be split into pieces, or shards, that run on separate machines that communicate with each other to collectively run the model. Machines that could run a significant model shard for a <30B model include smart fridges, smart ovens, automatic vacuum cleaners, and lawnmowers. A growing number of home and business devices, such as security cameras and video-conferencing units now ship with small built-in AI chips, designed to run AI models on the device itself. This extra computing power will likely make them attractive targets as well.

Small models, such as Qwen3.5-9B, are capable of setting up inference servers on hardware from Jetson Nanos to Mac PCs and RTX 4090s. More capable models such as GLM-5.2 are not only more reliable but also achieve higher serve tokens/s, allowing for faster replication. We test and mention specific chips to measure how well models can set up inference on them. The chips aren’t a source of risk or vulnerabilities.

We run these experiments using Memento, a harness we built on top of the open-source Pi coding agent. Memento is designed to mitigate a common failure mode we observe in long-horizon runs: an agent can become fixated on an incorrect idea (for, say, why a bug is occurring) and continue pursuing it instead of backtracking. One example of such a failure is a Qwen agent debugging package versioning for hours when the real bug came from implementing an endpoint incompatible with the grader API.

Memento periodically starts a fresh agent instance with the previous agent’s workspace and a short set of notes written by the previous agent on what it tried, allowing later instances to pursue different strategies.

IoT devices are light on memory, but distributed inference as in Petals makes serving our lightweight models feasible. The representative threat model is Kimwolf, a large IoT botnet that infected over two million devices, primarily off-brand Android TVs. Such smart TV boxes, which are readily available for purchase, typically run forks of the Android Open Source Project (AOSP), which their manufacturers don’t add security features to. Typical boxes in this range ship with between 1 and 4 gigabytes of RAM. Assuming 4GB of RAM at 4-bit quantization, this allows for inference of 9B models with 4 or more machines, and inference of 26B models with 10+ machines.

In the demo at the top of this post, we ran Gemma4-26B-A4B across 15 smart TV boxes with 4GB of RAM each. We sharded the model under pipeline parallelism, where each box holds a small fraction of the model’s layers.

Now that we’ve seen that models can set up inference on unfamiliar hardware, let’s measure whether models are capable of composing the steps—that is, scanning a network for targets, accessing them via a reverse shell, sending over the viral payload (weights and harness), and setting up inference.

Only GLM-5.2 out of our set of tested open-weight models is capable of full end-to-end replication (assuming its capabilities could be packed into Llama3.1-8B).